BTC is printing an aligned intraday-plus-daily downtrend with bearish MACD, sub-40 RSI on both timeframes, and heavy overhead pressure from longer-dated moving averages — the path of least resistance remains lower unless spot-ETF flows confirm a durable reversal.
Edition 2026-06-24 · prediction window to Thu 25 Jun 2026 05:01 UTC (06:01 BST)
Catalyst: The dominant near-term catalyst is the June 26 quarterly options expiry on Deribit (~$10–13B notional), which structurally favours put holders at current spot levels. The CLARITY Act is on the Senate Legislative Calendar but requires a 60-vote Senate floor passage, reconciliation with the House version, and a presidential signature — a multi-month process with meaningful legislative risk. Macro catalysts include Federal Reserve rate-path signals and ongoing PCE / jobs data prints that affect real yields and the USD.
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