Both timeframes — daily and intraday — are aligned in a downtrend with bearish MACD and EMA crosses, price trading beneath all major moving averages, and hourly RSI in the low-to-mid 40s; the prevailing path of least resistance remains lower, though yesterday's dramatically softer CPI print has partially diluted the most acute rate-hike fears and introduces a near-term mean-reversion counter-risk.
Edition 2026-07-15 · prediction window to Wed 15 Jul 2026 21:00 UTC (22:00 BST)
Catalyst: Key catalyst (June CPI) already released and digested overnight — headline and core both surprised substantially to the downside, materially reducing July Fed hike odds. Next intraday catalyst is US PPI (July 15, ~08:30 ET) alongside Empire Manufacturing; these are the session's live risk events. China Q2 GDP (released early this session at ~02:00 GMT) came in at 4.3% YoY, a miss versus 4.5% consensus, with weak domestic demand; Hang Seng and Nikkei both trade higher, suggesting the GDP miss is being absorbed without triggering risk-off.
Data: yahoo
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