Both timeframes align bearish, price sits below the daily pivot and the 200-day moving average, ETF flows broke their nascent inflow streak on July 24, and the VIX spike plus a rising 10-year yield tighten the macro headwind — short-biased unless the pivot is convincingly reclaimed.
Edition 2026-07-25 · prediction window to Sat 25 Jul 2026 21:00 UTC (22:00 BST)
Catalyst: FOMC meeting (July 28–29) is the dominant near-term catalyst; Fed expected to hold rates at 3.50–3.75% but a 25-bps hike carries roughly 35% market probability, leaving the tail risk alive. Bitcoin ETF daily flow data (published each US trading day) is the second-order real-time catalyst watch. US-Iran geopolitical tensions contributed to July 24's equity and ETF weakness and remain an active background risk.
Data: twelvedata
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