The pair is caught between a freshly confirmed hawkish-leaning FOMC hold that lifted US yields and a live Bank of England decision later today that markets price as a hold but that carries genuine upside-surprise hike risk, leaving directional conviction on both sides constrained until the BoE vote count and revised Monetary Policy Report are absorbed.
Edition 2026-07-30 · prediction window to Thu 30 Jul 2026 21:00 UTC (22:00 BST)
Catalyst: PRIMARY LIVE: Bank of England MPC rate decision and Monetary Policy Report at 12:00 noon UK time (11:00 UTC) today, July 30. FOMC event already absorbed: Fed held 9–3 on July 29, three hawkish dissents noted. US 10-year yields moved higher post-FOMC. UK CPI (June) already released July 22 at 2.6% headline, 3.6% services — the last major UK data input into today's BoE decision.
Data: twelvedata
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