Bitcoin is entrenched in an aligned daily-plus-hourly downtrend and is trading fractionally below its daily SMA-20, but a fresh surge in institutional ETF demand and a materially softer July jobs report have introduced a credible bullish counterweight — the August 12 CPI print is the event that will resolve this tension.
Edition 2026-08-11 · prediction window to Tue 11 Aug 2026 21:00 UTC (22:00 BST)
Catalyst: Pre-CPI compression regime. The July jobs shock (-23,000 payrolls vs. +80,000 expected, plus -103,000 in revisions) has already materially shifted Fed pricing — CME FedWatch hike odds for September have retreated from 55% to approximately 40-46% — and the full resolution of this repricing depends on the August 12, 08:30 ET CPI print. Today's session carries no scheduled Tier-1 macro releases specific to August 11.
Data: twelvedata
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